Traders take profits against the euro as US dollar corrects.- There is a case for a restest of 1.2212/45 prior to a bearish continuation.
The greenback has been climbing from a nearly three-year low as a rise in US yields helped fuel the unwinding of bearish bets on the currency.
In the positioning data for the week ending 5 January 2021, leveraged funds turned USD buyers. Traders are continuing to take profits against the euro which has printed a fresh low in Asia at the start of the week.
However, from a top-down analysis, while the lower time frames technical environments, such as the 4-hour, are bearish, there is the case for a restest of 1.2212/45 prior to a bearish continuation.
The following series of charts illustrate the case for a correction of the daily impulse and subsequent extension to the downside.
From the monthly chart, 1.2093 is earmarked for the downside based on a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement confluence with prior structure and old resistance, guarding a deeper retracement into the last resistance of 1.2011.
A 38.2% Fibonacci of the daily bearish impulse from current lows would equate to a retest of prior lows as a confluence level at 1.2245.
In a continuation to the downside from there to meet current lows, a bearish topping pattern in a head and shoulders would be compelling and be expected to lead to an extension of the southerly trajectory.
Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-analysis-382-fibonacci-12220-in-focus-202101110113
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