USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls throwing in the towel? 103.50 is the big test NEWS | 8 minutes ago | By Ross J Burland

 

USD/JPY bears in control below critical daily resistance.

• Bulls need to guard the mid-point of 103 on the next test.

In the prior analysis, USD/JPY bulls pressure a critical resistance in 103.90 but lack conviction, it was noted that there were little prospects of a break beyond resistance. 

In the 4-hour chart below, it was illustrated that there was a strong level of resistance for which the bulls will need to conquer to open prospects for an upside continuation:

That being said, in the original technical analysis, USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls taking charge from 61.8% Fibo, the price action is yet to fully invalidate the bullish bias.

The following is an up to date illustration of where the bias lies, so long as 103.50 holds. 

As can be seen, the price is trapped between both dynamic short term support and the longer-term downtrend resistance. 

Zooming in, staying on the daily chart, the price is holding above the presumed low. 

Bulls need to break the daily resistance of prior highs, yet there is little to suggest that this will occur anytime soon as the price moves deeper into the descending channel. 

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-analysis-bulls-throwing-in-the-towel-10350-is-the-big-test-202101270131

GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Bears in control towards daily 61.8% Fib target, 141.57 NEWS | 3 minutes ago | By Ross J Burland

• GBP/JPY is melting to the downside to form new resistance structure.
• Bears looking for a lower close at the top of the hour on the hourly time frame.  

Further to the prior analysis in the New York session, GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Bears to restest the daily W-formation's neckline, the price has indeed moved lower.

Bears can move their stop loss to breakeven for a 0:2.3 risk to reward probability position. 

As can be seen, the market has melted and formed a new resistance structure in breaking the lows.

This area would be expected to hold on a restest and subsequently pressure the price to the 61.8% Fibonacci daily target of 141.57.

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-analysis-bears-in-control-towards-daily-618-fib-target-14157-202101260154

WTI: Mildly bid above $52 as risks battle hopes of output cut NEWS | 12 minutes ago | By Anil Panchal

 

• WTI wavers around intraday high amid a quiet session.
• Iraq is up for production cut to compensate for breach of the OPEC quota.
• Fears of virus variant, doubts over US fiscal stimulus challenge the risks.

WTI prints 0.30% intraday gains while taking rounds to $52.30 amid Monday’s Asian session. While weekend news suggesting output cut from Iraq favor the oil bulls, doubts over the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus and the worsening virus conditions cap the upside moves.

Bloomberg came out with the news suggesting Iraq’s planned oil output cut in January and February by around 0.25 million barrels per day of production to 3.6 million barrels. While Baghdad’s slowing down of oil flow is mainly due to its inability to respect the OPEC’s targets, Kurdistan’s action will be the key to follow.

Read: Iraq will cut oil output to compensate for breach of OPEC+ quota - Bloomberg

Other than the weekend news, risk consolidation also backs the energy buyers by press time. The S&P 500 Futures gain 0.30% and stocks in Asia-Pacific also print mild gains during early Monday.

Although fears of the quickly spreading virus strain weigh on risk-tone, recently positive signs over the looming US fiscal package seem to have favored the latest optimism. It should, however, be noted that the gridlock over the US aid package hasn’t been solved yet, which in turn keeps the risks pressured while the virus variant suggests more lockdowns from the key economies in the West.

Read: US Senator Sanders: Democrats will use reconciliation to pass Covid-19 relief package – CNN

Looking forward, a light calendar before the US session keeps WTI prices at the mercy of risk catalysts. Though, cautious optimism for the American covid aid package, backed by improving conditions in China, favors the commodities.

Technical analysis

Although sustained trading beyond 21-day SMA, at $51.00 now, keeps WTI buyers hopeful, a downward sloping trend line from Wednesday, currently around $52.85, guards the quote’s short-term upside moves.

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-mildly-bid-above-52-as-risks-battle-hopes-of-output-cut-202101250136

WTI to average $56 in Q1 2021 – EIA NEWS | 8 minutes ago | By Omkar Godbole

 

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised the first-quarter price forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the North American oil benchmark, higher to $56 from $50. 

The bullish forecast is mainly based on expectations for a rebound in the global demand for petroleum liquids, according to oilprice.com. 

Key points

EIA expects global inventory draws will contribute to forecast rising crude oil prices in the first quarter of 2021. 

While the EIA expects oil demand to rise in Q1, the recent rise in COVID-19 cases will continue to limit global oil demand in the first half of 2021.

The US GDP to grow by 5.4% in 2021, leading to energy consumption growth. Global consumption of liquid fuels in 2021

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-to-average-56-in-q1-2021-eia-202101220349 

US inflation expectations continue to rise, hit highest since October 2018 NEWS | 1 minutes ago | By Omkar Godbole

The US 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which represents how the market foresees long-term price pressures, rose to 2.10% on Tuesday to hit the highest level since Oct. 22, 2018, according to St. Louis Federal Reserve.

The breakeven rate has risen by over 50 basis points in the past three months, with investors expecting generous fiscal spending under incoming US President Joe Biden. 

The President-elect unveiled a stimulus package worth $1.9 trillion last week. Meanwhile, Treasury nominee Janet L. Yellen argued Tuesday that it's "critically important to act now" to pass more economic relief while defending Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. 

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-inflation-expectations-continue-to-rise-hit-highest-since-october-2018-202101200243

BERITA FOREX. AUD/USD struggles for direction around 0.7700 amid mixed China data dump NEWS | 2 minutes ago | By Anil Panchal

• AUD/USD trims intraday losses but fails to stay above 0.7700.
• China’s Q4 GDP, December Industrial Production improve but Retail Sales eases.
• Risk dwindles amid cautious sentiment ahead of new government in the US, virus woes.
• Off in America, light calendar elsewhere may challenge momentum traders.

AUD/USD wavers around 0.7700 following mixed data releases from China during early Monday. The quote initially pierced the 0.7700 threshold while cheering upbeat GDP and Industrial Production data from the largest customer but couldn’t ignore weaker than expected Retail Sales. Also challenging the quote could be risk-off mood and the US dollar strength.

China’s fourth-quarter (Q4) GDP grew from 6.1% to 6.5% YoY but eased on QoQ basis to 2.6% versus 3.2% forecast and 2.7% prior. Further, Industrial Production for December rose past-6.9% expected to 7.3% YoY whereas Retail Sales dropped below 5.0% previous readouts and 5.5% market consensus.

Read: Chinese data dump: Monthly activity weaker and GDP YoY beats

Considering the lack of reaction to China data, AUD/USD traders seem taking clues from the risk catalysts where S&P 500 Futures and stocks in Asia-Pacific stay heavy by the press time.

Behind the moves could be the chatters that US President-elect Joe Biden will cancel Canada’s Keystone XL pipeline permit and upcoming Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s commitment to market-determined dollar value. Also, the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes and doubts over China’s economic improvement are an extra burden that weighs on the AUD/USD prices.

Virus numbers have receded in the UK while those from the US and Japan remain worrisome. Global vaccine producers remain optimistic over the capacity to tame the virus strains but fail to defy the woes. At home, Australians can avail overseas travels from now while much of Sydney cleared for Victorians to return from 6:00 pm tonight. However, there are 10 council areas in Sydney's West and south-west regions that still bear the tag of "Red" zones.

Read: New UK covid stats lower despite variant, vaccine rolled out

Having witnessed the initial impact of the Chinese data dump, AUD/USD traders may revisit the risk catalysts as the Wall Street Journal earlier raised doubts over China’s economic improvement, based on the report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It should, however, be noted that major attention will be given to the hints on how the Biden government will act during the initial ruling and the virus updates for short-term direction. Traders should also take note of the US off, due to Martin Luther King’s Birthday, as this will reduce market moves.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD sellers cheering downside break of an ascending trend line from November 02, at 0.7732 now, need validation from 21-day SMA level of 0.7682, to firm up the grips, failing to do so can re-direct traders toward the 0.7800 threshold.

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-struggle-for-direction-around-07700-amid-mixed-china-data-dump-202101180216

BERITA FOREX.EUR/USD Price Analysis: Muted reaction to Biden's stimulus talk, Friday's close pivotal NEWS | 42 minutes ago | By Omkar Godbole Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin

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  Biden's stimulus announcement fails to move the needle in currency markets. 
• EUR/USD trades in a sideways manner near 1.2155. 
• Thursday's indecisive Doji candle has neutralized immediate bearish bias.

The US President-elect Joe Biden unveiled a much-anticipated coronavirus rescue plan a few minutes before press time, promising $2,000 in stimulus cheques to Americans, social equity, infrastructure spending, and a potential minimum wage of $15 per hour. 

However, Biden did not give away the total size of the stimulus program, which, according to media reports released early Friday, is $1.9 trillion. 

So far, Biden's stimulus talk has failed to inject volatility in the forex markets, leaving EUR/USD sidelined near 1.2155. 

On Thursday, the currency pair traded back and forth and ended on a flat note, forming a Doji candle on the daily chart. A sign of indecision, the Doji has neutralized the short-term bearish bias put forward by the last week's rising wedge breakdown and made Friday's close pivotal. 

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-analysis-muted-reaction-to-bidens-stimulus-talk-fridays-close-pivotal-202101150107

BERITA FOREX. WTI Price Analysis: Sidelined in Asia with bearish RSI divergence on 4H NEWS | 16 minutes ago | By Omkar Godbole

A barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the North American oil benchmark, is currently changing hands near $52.82. Oil is trading largely unchanged on the day, having faced rejection near $54.00 on Wednesday. 

According to the bearish divergence of the 4-hour chart Relative Strength Index (RSI), the pullback from Wednesday's high could be extended to the 4-hour chart 50-candle Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently at $52.15. 

A violation there would expose the higher low of $51.50 created on the 4-hour chart on Jan. 11. 

A move above $53.40, the high of the right shoulder of the 15-minute chart head-and-shoulders pattern, would open the doors for a re-test of $53.93 (Jan. 13 high). 

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-analysis-sidelined-in-asia-with-bearish-rsi-divergence-on-4h-202101140211

 

BERITA FOREX. Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD raises a bear flag on the 4-hour chart NEWS | 9 minutes ago | By Omkar Godbole

• Gold gains ground in Asia as the US 10-year yield extends overnight drop. 
• The metal looks to be charting a bear flag downside continuation pattern.

Gold is currently trading near $1,860 per ounce, representing a 0.37% gain on the day. 

The bounce from Monday's one-month low of $1,816 has taken the shape of a bear flag pattern on the 4-hour chart. A bear flag is a pause that often refreshes lower, recharging bears' engines for a more profound decline. 

A move below the lower end of the flag, currently at $1,840, would confirm a breakdown and imply a continuation of the decline from the Jan. 6 high of $1,959. The immediate support is seen at $1,816 ad $1,800. 

A convincing move above the hourly chart resistance of $1,870 would invalidate the bearish setup. 

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-analysis-xau-usd-raises-a-bear-flag-on-the-4-hour-chart-202101130147

BERITA FOREX. NZD/USD Price Analysis: Battles 21-day SMA, short-term key support line below 0.7200 NEWS | 6 minutes ago | By Anil Panchal Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin

 

• NZD/USD strays on the back foot for fourth consecutive day.
• Normal RSI conditions challenge bears near key technical supports.
• Bulls remain cautious unless crossing the 0.7300 threshold.

NZD/USD drops to 0.7160, down 0.10% intraday, during early Tuesday. In doing so, the kiwi pair prints a four-day downtrend as bears battle 21-day SMA and an upward sloping trend line from November 02.

As RSI stabilizes around the 50 level, following its pullback from overbought territory, the bears are likely to wait for a clear downside break below 0.7150/45 support confluence.

Following that, a 50-day SMA level of 0.7014 and a December low near 0.7000 will be on the NZD/USD sellers’ radar.

Meanwhile, an area comprising December 31 top and early last week’s lows surrounding 0.7240 will add filters to the pair’s upside past-0.7200.

Even if the NZD/USD buyers manage to cross 0.7240, they can wait for a sustained upside beyond the recent multi-month high around the 0.7300 threshold before eyeing the April 2018 peak surrounding the 0.7400 round-figure.

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-analysis-battles-21-day-sma-short-term-key-support-line-below-07200-202101120228

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BERITA FOREX. EUR/USD Price Analysis: 38.2% Fibonacci 1.2220 in focus NEWS | 28 minutes ago | By Ross J Burland

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  Traders take profits against the euro as US dollar corrects. 
• There is a case for a restest of 1.2212/45 prior to a bearish continuation.

The greenback has been climbing from a nearly three-year low as a rise in US yields helped fuel the unwinding of bearish bets on the currency.

In the positioning data for the week ending 5 January 2021, leveraged funds turned USD buyers. Traders are continuing to take profits against the euro which has printed a fresh low in Asia at the start of the week. 

However, from a top-down analysis, while the lower time frames technical environments, such as the 4-hour, are bearish, there is the case for a restest of 1.2212/45 prior to a bearish continuation. 

The following series of charts illustrate the case for a correction of the daily impulse and subsequent extension to the downside. 

From the monthly chart, 1.2093 is earmarked for the downside based on a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement confluence with prior structure and old resistance, guarding a deeper retracement into the last resistance of 1.2011. 

A 38.2% Fibonacci of the daily bearish impulse from current lows would equate to a retest of prior lows as a confluence level at 1.2245. 

In a continuation to the downside from there to meet current lows, a bearish topping pattern in a head and shoulders would be compelling and be expected to lead to an extension of the southerly trajectory.  

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-analysis-382-fibonacci-12220-in-focus-202101110113

BERITA FOREX. US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Bulls cheer break of 13-day-old resistance to attack 90.00 NEWS | 15 minutes ago | By Anil Panchal Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin

• US dollar index picks up bids after clearing short-term key resistance line, 200-HMA.
• MACD dwindles on the way to key Fibonacci retracement levels.

US dollar index (DXY) rises to 90.02, currently up 0.13% around 89.95, during early Friday. The greenback gauge crossed a downward sloping trend line from December 22 the previous day while struggling to provide a clear break above 200-HMA.

With the latest clear run-up beyond the key moving average, DXY is up for challenging the 50% Fibonacci retracement of December 21 to January 06 downside, around 90.15.

However, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and multiple highs marked since December 24 will challenge the US dollar bulls near 90.32/37 afterward.

In a case where the greenback buyers step back, a downside break of 200-HMA and the previous resistance line, respectively around 89.85 and 89.60, will be the key to watch.

Should the DXY bears keep the reins past-89.60, the lowest since April 2018, flashed earlier in the week, close to 89.30, followed by the 89.00 round-figure may gain the market’s attention.

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-analysis-bulls-cheer-break-of-13-day-old-resistance-to-attack-9000-202101080150

BERITA FOREX. GBP/USD Price Analysis: Up 25 pips but trades in a familiar range NEWS | 7 minutes ago | By Omkar Godbole

 

• GBP/USD trades higher on Thursday but is still stuck in the three-day range of 1.3538-1.37. 
• A range breakdown would open the doors for a test of SMA support. 

GBP/USD is currently trading near 1.3625, having found bids near 1.3620 early today. 

While the pair has gained roughly 25 pips, it is still trapped in the range of 1.3538-1.37 established over the past three days. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also indicating indecision or range play with a triangle pattern. 

A close above 1.37 would signal a continuation of the rally from the September low of 1.2675 and create room for a rally to at least 1.3862 (range breakout target). 

Alternatively, a downside break would open the doors for the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently at 1.3329.

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-analysis-up-25-pips-but-trades-in-a-fam
iliar-range-202101070203

BERITA FOREX. AUD/USD: Next target is now at 0.7760 – UOB NEWS | 8 minutes ago | By Pablo Piovano

 In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, AUD/USD faces strong resistance at the 0.7760 region.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “AUD surged to a high of 0.7743 last Thursday (31 Dec) before retreating quickly to end the day a tad higher at 0.7693 (+0.09%). The rapid pull-back amid overbought conditions suggests that further AUD strength is unlikely. AUD is more likely to consolidate and trade within a 0.7665/0.7730 range.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “While AUD rose to a fresh high of 0.7743 last Thursday, it retreated quickly to end the day slightly higher at 0.7693 (+0.09%). Further AUD strength is not ruled out but upward momentum is not strong and the pace of any advance is likely to be slow. Overall, there is room for AUD to advance but the next major resistance at 0.7760 is unlikely to come into the picture so soon. On the downside, a break of 0.7630 would indicate the current upward pressure has eased.”

Source from https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-next-target-is-now-at-07760-uob-202101040611